The employer market as a window of opportunity
- Julian Maly
- Mar 9
- 3 min read
In many conversations with HR managers these days, I hear the phrase: "Finally, the employer's market is back." More applications, less pressure on salaries, candidates are more realistic. Companies seem to have regained control.
Even if this interpretation is largely correct for the status quo, it contains a fundamental risk:
Yes, Austria has shown a cooling labor market since 2023: In February 2026, unemployment was again 2.9% higher than the previous year, while the number of immediately available job vacancies was 10.3% lower than the previous year. However, a long-term employer's market is structurally unlikely in Austria (and in the DACH region). This is because demographic trends, occupational shortages, and shortcomings in education policy will resurface with interest rates during the next economic upswing.
Unlike large corporations, the risk affects medium-sized businesses more directly: In Austria, 85% of all companies lack the recruiting capacity to catch up in the short term. Those who fail to consistently develop their recruiting processes, neglect employer reputation and retention measures, or reduce training will have to react ad-hoc in the foreseeable future.
Statistics Austria reported an average annual decrease of 19.5% in job vacancies for 2025 compared to the previous year. Companies reduced their job postings and postponed hiring. At the same time, surveys across the board show that recruiting in 2025 was not a sure thing, despite fewer job postings. A good quarter of the positions were advertised for an extended period, and for around 13%, the search lasted six months or more.
The situation report shows not only higher unemployment, but also a significant increase in certain groups – for example, among those with academic qualifications (+13.7%). The labor market is not easing "uniformly," but rather exhibits both surpluses (e.g., in traditional office roles) and shortages (e.g., in life sciences, climate technology, etc.).
Demographic trends make a return to an employee-driven market very likely in many segments. The number of 20- to 64-year-olds peaked in 2024; by 2040, it will decline by 4.6%. This represents the supply side of the future recruiting market.
Those who rely solely on macroeconomic labor market figures are primarily managing recruitment in hindsight. It's no coincidence that there are also timely bottleneck indicators that should be utilized. This detail is strategically crucial: an employer's market can shift dramatically within a single quarter, even at the professional level. Those who are unprepared often end up paying a premium later under time pressure.
No one can accurately predict how long an employer's market will last in specific sectors. However, some interesting indicators allow for interpretation: The Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) expects the economic recovery to solidify, inflation to fall, and the unemployment rate to decline steadily. Export and industrial activity, however, remain vulnerable to setbacks.
In practice, this means that the “employer market window” is more of a corridor measured in months – with high segmentation by profession, region and qualification.
Germany: The IAB (Institute for Employment Research) continues to show a large number of job vacancies, with the majority in the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector. Even if large companies are slowing down their recruitment efforts, competition for suitable candidates remains high. Destatis (the Federal Statistical Office of Germany) reports that by 2039, approximately 13.4 million people of working age will have exceeded the statutory retirement age, representing 31% of the potential workforce in 2024.
Switzerland: SECO reports an unemployment rate of only 3.2% for February 2026. At the same time, 46% of companies report difficulties in recruiting qualified workers.
The message here is: Even in markets with low unemployment, recruiting remains difficult due to a lack of qualified candidates. And even with decreasing vacancies, recruiting for key roles remains challenging.
What does this mean in practice?
I summarize the implications into four key statements:
Recruiting will become a more significant competitive factor again within the next 12-24 months.
The cycle offers something rare: time to build functioning processes instead of having to improvise in scarcity mode.
The essential thing is the know-how to identify which roles will be central in the future and how to fill them appropriately in the long term with the right strategy.
Management in medium-sized businesses has two major advantages that it should utilize: short decision-making processes and practical scope for action.
The following recommendations should be understood as suggestions for topics whose addressing is particularly relevant to the day when the market turns around again:
Development of a clear role portfolio, clear priorities and approval logics
Design of modern processes and decision-making frameworks
Definition of recruiting SLAs as a binding policy
Expansion of talent pools as a pipeline, including systematization of referral programs.
Retention focus for key roles and identification of vacancy risks
Audit of re-skilling, up-skilling and career paths
Establishing workforce planning as a scenario model
